Unlike breaking news stories that flame out and die, longer-term information trends reveal structural shifts in societal behavior.
Emerging trends feed on changes in the real world, and spread awareness for these changes to larger segments of society, creating a self-reinforcing loop.
Financial statements are an image of the past, and couldn’t possibly tell the full story of a world in perpetual motion. We base our research on revealing shifts in the information flow, to focus on themes that aren’t priced in yet.
Following thousands of specialized sources, we identify what’s disruptive and overlooked, and hasn’t yet made its way into operating results. We look for clues of fundamental changes in people’s habits that will shape the world of tomorrow once they’ve spread past a critical percentage of our society.
We try and anticipate the effects of these changes, and ascertain their impact on established business models and assumptions.
We focus on ground-breaking, unexpected transformations: new markets, new technologies, new solutions to today’s problems. These are the events that define the big picture.
Simon Senek, in his excellent TED speech about the Law of Diffusion of Innovation, explains how new technologies are adopted by consumers. It starts with enthusiasts, the early adopters, and slowly grinds market share until it reaches a critical mass of adopters, when it explodes and captures everyone’s attention.
The same dynamics are true for information. Awareness for a new paradigm grows slowly. It takes dozens or hundreds of blog posts, newspaper articles, tweets and shares to get people’s attention. But once enough of information is out there, people will keep bumping into it, and eventually, everyone will change its mind all at once.
We look for rising news flow trends that have not yet gone mainstream, but need the momentum to keep going for global awareness to shift all of a sudden. This is a sweet spot in the trend’s life cycle where people have mostly all read a news article about the paradigm, but the information hasn’t completely made it into the conscious part of their brain. They just need a gentle nudge to "get it".
When someone provides them with that tiny nudge, everything unravels.
We shared a link to our article on Goggle and the Online Advertising Bubble on Hacker News, on May 4th, 2016 (Star Wars day, of course). And this happened (below is our Google Analytics chart of visits for kalkis-research.com).
How on earth did we get that much coverage, that many voluntary shares and tweets, to make make it into Google search results as #5 for "google bubble", and #3 for "advertising bubble"?
People were ready for it.
This is the news flow chart for "ad fraud". Blogs, online newspapers, had been covering the subject for years. Everyone kind of knew about it. We just gave them the nudge.
This is why you’ll see these news flow charts popping up in our research. They are the basis for our analysis. They provide us with the picture of where the global mindset is, about any given subject. So that we know how to value what we know, against what everybody else knows.